Spot Bitcoin ETFs Face Third Day of Outflows as Market Risk-Off Sentiment Grows

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Source: GuerillaStockTrading.com

U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs Record Consecutive Outflows

The United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced a third consecutive day of net outflows, driven by a downturn in Bitcoin’s price and a broader market risk-off sentiment. As Bitcoin briefly fell below the $90,000 mark, investors pulled significant capital from major spot Bitcoin ETFs, highlighting growing concerns over market volatility. Factors such as rising interest rates, inflationary pressures, and global geopolitical tensions have contributed to increased uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market.

$1 Billion Exits Spot Bitcoin ETFs Over Three Days

According to recent data from SoSoValue, a total of 12 spot Bitcoin ETFs reported net outflows of $284.19 million on January 13, bringing the cumulative three-day outflows to over $1 billion. This trend underscores the cautious stance investors are adopting amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.

Fidelity’s FBTC led the outflows, with $113.64 million exiting the fund on Monday. Fidelity, a key player in the cryptocurrency space, has long been recognized for its institutional-grade financial products and its commitment to digital asset innovation. Investors closely follow Fidelity due to its influence on the broader adoption of crypto assets in traditional finance.

ARK and Grayscale Witness Substantial Outflows

ARK 21Shares’ ARKB ETF also saw significant outflows, with $92.36 million withdrawn. ARK’s involvement in Bitcoin ETFs has been notable for its focus on disruptive innovation, including its emphasis on integrating blockchain technology and fostering access to high-growth digital assets, making its products a barometer for investor sentiment toward high-growth, high-risk assets. The outflows from ARK highlight the shifting risk appetite among market participants.

Grayscale’s GBTC, one of the earliest Bitcoin investment vehicles, recorded outflows of $89.01 million. As a pioneer in offering Bitcoin exposure to institutional and retail investors, Grayscale remains an important player in the crypto market. The outflows from GBTC reflect broader concerns about short-term cryptocurrency price stability.

Meanwhile, Bitwise’s BITB reported investor withdrawals amounting to $18.64 million. Known for its focus on index-based crypto funds, Bitwise’s products are closely monitored by investors seeking diversified exposure to digital assets.

BlackRock Bucks the Trend with Positive Inflows

In contrast to the prevailing trend, BlackRock’s IBIT ETF recorded an inflow of $29.46 million, likely due to its reputation as a trusted asset manager and its strategic positioning in the digital asset space, which may have appealed to long-term investors despite broader market outflows. BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has increasingly turned its attention to digital assets, signaling growing institutional interest in cryptocurrencies. The inflows into IBIT suggest that some investors still view Bitcoin as a long-term investment despite short-term volatility.

Declining Trading Volume Signals Waning Investor Activity

The total trading volume across the 12 Bitcoin ETFs reached $3.17 billion on January 13, slightly down from the $3.26 billion recorded the previous day. This decrease in trading volume reflects reduced investor activity amid market uncertainty.

Macroeconomic Factors Weigh on Crypto Market

The significant outflows from Bitcoin ETFs coincided with Bitcoin’s brief dip below the $90,000 mark, a psychological level closely watched by market participants. The broader cryptocurrency market has faced headwinds since the release of stronger-than-expected U.S. payroll data, which caused a surge in bond yields and heightened expectations of tighter monetary policy. Tighter monetary policy typically reduces liquidity in the financial markets, leading to decreased demand for riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.

Adding to the pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, were concerns over President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff plans, which boosted the U.S. dollar. A stronger dollar typically weighs on Bitcoin and other crypto assets, as it reduces their appeal as alternative investments.

Also Read:  Tom Lee’s Market Predictions, Bitcoin, and What Investors Need to Know in 2025

Importance of Monitoring Key Bitcoin ETFs

For investors, tracking the performance and flows of major Bitcoin ETFs is critical for gauging market sentiment and identifying potential turning points. Fidelity’s FBTC, ARK’s ARKB, and Grayscale’s GBTC are particularly important due to their significant market presence and influence on institutional adoption of digital assets.

Additionally, BlackRock’s positive inflows demonstrate the contrasting investor perspectives in the current environment, suggesting that while some remain cautious, others are positioning for long-term gains. As one of the largest asset managers globally, BlackRock’s involvement in Bitcoin ETFs lends credibility to the asset class and signals growing mainstream acceptance.

Bitcoin Trading Plan

Bitcoin at $70,000 would be a 61.8 percent retracement
Bitcoin at $70,000 would be a 61.8 percent retracement

This daily chart of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) displays a confluence of technical indicators, including Bollinger Bands, a Hull Moving Average, Fibonacci retracement levels, the MACD Oscillator, and the Chande Momentum Oscillator. Here’s a comprehensive analysis based on these indicators:

Trend Analysis:
The current trend shows a medium-term uptrend, followed by consolidation near a key resistance zone around $101,000. This resistance aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the prior uptrend, indicating potential selling pressure at higher levels. The Hull Moving Average (set at 34 periods) is currently flatlining near $94,450, reflecting the current range-bound behavior. However, price action remains above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level ($71,000), which acts as critical support.

Support and Resistance Levels:

  • Immediate Resistance: $101,000 (recent high and 23.6% Fibonacci level)
  • Intermediate Resistance: $96,750 (mid-point of the Bollinger Bands)
  • Immediate Support: $91,000 (lower Bollinger Band zone)
  • Major Support: $71,000–$74,000 (Fibonacci 61.8% level and historical price floor)

Indicators Interpretation:

  1. Bollinger Bands: The price is near the middle of the bands after briefly touching the upper band in late December. This suggests reduced volatility and ongoing consolidation. A breakout above or below the bands could signal the next major trend.
  2. MACD Oscillator: The MACD line is below the signal line and moving lower, with the histogram showing bearish momentum (-507). However, the negative momentum appears to be fading, as seen in the decreasing histogram bars. This suggests a potential bullish crossover could occur if momentum stabilizes.
  3. Chande Momentum Oscillator: The reading of 8.80 indicates mild bullish momentum but isn’t in overbought territory. This suggests room for further upside if buying pressure resumes.
Also Read:  Whale-sized moves in crypto! Dogecoin and Ripple making waves ahead of Trump’s big day! 🐋

Chart Patterns and Trader Psychology:
The chart shows characteristics of a bullish flag pattern, where the strong uptrend from October to November was followed by a consolidation channel. The psychology behind this pattern is that traders are pausing after a large rally, and a breakout above $101,000 could trigger renewed buying interest, leading to continuation of the uptrend. Conversely, a breakdown below $90,000 could lead to panic selling, with a possible drop toward $71,000 support.

Future Trend Forecast:

  • Bullish Case: If Bitcoin breaks above $101,000 with strong volume, it may resume the uptrend, potentially targeting $110,000 and beyond.
  • Bearish Case: A sustained breakdown below $90,000 could open the door for a deeper correction toward $71,000.
    Given the indicators, short-term consolidation is likely unless there is a major breakout or breakdown.

Swing Trading Plan:

  • Entry: Consider entering a long position near $90,000 if support holds.
  • Stop-Loss: Set a stop-loss just below $89,000 to limit downside risk.
  • Profit Target: First target at $96,750 and second target at $101,000.
  • Risk Management: Keep the risk-reward ratio at least 1:2.

Long-Term Trading Plan:

  • Entry: A staggered entry strategy could be used by buying at current levels ($96,750) and adding near $91,000 if price dips further.
  • Stop-Loss: Below $70,000, as a break of this level would invalidate the long-term uptrend.
  • Profit Target: Long-term target near $110,000, with potential extensions beyond if the bull run continues.
  • Risk Management: Consider allocating only a small percentage of your portfolio to this trade due to crypto volatility.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. This article should not be considered as investment advice. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. 🧡

Strategic Takeaways for Investors

Monitoring these key ETFs provides valuable insights into broader market trends. Investors can use this information to make more informed decisions about portfolio diversification, timing their investments, or hedging against potential market downturns. By closely following inflows and outflows in major ETFs, they can identify shifts in sentiment and potential entry or exit points for their crypto-related investments. Staying informed about macroeconomic factors and policy changes can further enhance investors’ ability to navigate the evolving crypto landscape.

The recent wave of outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs highlights the impact of macroeconomic factors on investor sentiment and market dynamics. While many funds faced significant withdrawals, BlackRock’s inflows indicate that not all investors are deterred by the current volatility. As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, strategic monitoring of ETF flows, market sentiment, and macroeconomic trends can provide investors with crucial insights and potential opportunities for long-term growth.

Lance Jepsen
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