The main rug on which perma-bulls stand is the falling unemployment rate in the U.S. A falling unemployment rate seems like a good thing for markets but is it?
Japan Unemployment Rate
We all know that Japan’s economy has been in trouble for decades as its central bank scrambles to prop up the economy. The (Read More….)
The U.S. government is pulling out all the stops on the idea that consumers are strengthening, and that GDP will surge higher in the second half of 2016.
Below is the latest Real Personal Consumption Expenditures released on Monday.
Personal income also continues to grow…
Growing real personal consumption and income (Read More….)
The velocity of money has declined to the lowest level ever recorded, and the decline seems to be accelerating.
The quantity theory of money is based on the equation of exchange. This equation is: M x V = P x Q.
M equals the money supply. V is the velocity of money, or, the (Read More….)
The S&P 500 has broken its weak uptrend channel and is now in a sideways channel between 2150 and 2195.
The falling money flow is a big warning sign for markets.
I don’t see a catalyst that is going to take the market through 2195 right now. The S&P 500 has recently hit record (Read More….)
Last month I dropped coverage of GDPNow after the GDP forecast was dropped by a huge amount right before the actual GDP release. Immediately after the GDP release, they release a Q3 GDP estimate that was at 3.7% which supported the Fed’s yearly lie that the economy was set to strengthen in the second half (Read More….)
The S&P 500 broke the uptrend channel today and has gone into a sideways channel (orange line) on the falling money flow I warned about last week. The support level of the channel is 2169, and the resistance level is 2194.
We are looking for summer doldrums trading to end soon.
Some of (Read More….)
Tomorrow, August 25th, 2016, is a critical day for markets. The S&P 500 is now testing lower uptrend channel support.
We track high yield debt and I explained why back in December of 2014 here.
Money flow into high-yield debt has been forming lower highs since March of 2016. High yield debt fell (Read More….)
The S&P 500 continues to trade within a brutal, tight, slight uptrend channel.
Trying to time a short or volatility trade against this market has been a fools game. Going all-in on the long side has also not worked very well. It’s like the market is a wet dog right now shaking off the (Read More….)